1,000,000 Simulations
Who wins the World Cup?
One million tournament simulations. One question: where is the value?
Spain
20.7%
to win it all
Argentina
14.1%
to win it all
France
9.6%
to win it all
Powered by Trueline's ELO Engine · Updated April 15, 2026
| # ▼ | Team | ELO | Group | Conf | Group Exit% | R32% | R16% | QF% | SF% | Final% | Champion% ▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ESPSpain | 2172 | H | UEFA | 0.4% | 99.6% | 76.6% | 57.5% | 42.1% | 30% | 20.7% |
| 2 | ARGArgentina | 2113 | J | CONMEBOL | 1.5% | 98.5% | 71.9% | 50.8% | 34.5% | 22.5% | 14.1% |
| 3 | FRAFrance | 2062 | I | UEFA | 3.1% | 96.9% | 66.9% | 44.3% | 28% | 16.8% | 9.6% |
| 4 | ENGEngland | 2042 | L | UEFA | 2.8% | 97.2% | 65.7% | 42.3% | 25.9% | 15% | 8.2% |
| 5 | COLColombia | 1998 | K | CONMEBOL | 3.2% | 96.8% | 61.7% | 37.2% | 21.1% | 11.3% | 5.6% |
| 6 | BRABrazil | 1978 | C | CONMEBOL | 2.3% | 97.7% | 60.6% | 35.4% | 19.5% | 10% | 4.8% |
| 7 | PORPortugal | 1976 | K | UEFA | 3.9% | 96.1% | 59.3% | 34.5% | 18.9% | 9.7% | 4.6% |
| 8 | NEDNetherlands | 1959 | F | UEFA | 4.2% | 95.8% | 57.8% | 32.7% | 17.4% | 8.6% | 4% |
| 9 | ECUEcuador | 1933 | E | CONMEBOL | 3.4% | 96.6% | 55.9% | 30.2% | 15.2% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| 10 | CROCroatia | 1932 | L | UEFA | 7.5% | 92.5% | 53.4% | 28.9% | 14.5% | 6.8% | 2.9% |
| 11 | NORNorway | 1922 | I | UEFA | 10.2% | 89.8% | 51% | 27% | 13.3% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| 12 | GERGermany | 1910 | E | UEFA | 4.2% | 95.8% | 53.3% | 27.7% | 13.3% | 6% | 2.5% |
| 13 | SUISwitzerland | 1897 | B | UEFA | 3.9% | 96.1% | 52.5% | 26.6% | 12.5% | 5.4% | 2.2% |
| 14 | URUUruguay | 1890 | H | CONMEBOL | 6.3% | 93.7% | 50.5% | 25.2% | 11.6% | 5% | 2% |
| 15 | JPNJapan | 1878 | F | AFC | 9% | 91% | 47.9% | 23.4% | 10.5% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| 16 | TURTürkiye | 1880 | D | UEFA | 14.6% | 85.4% | 45.1% | 22.1% | 10% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| 17 | MEXMexico | 1857 | A | CONCACAF | 6.9% | 93.1% | 47.2% | 22% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| 18 | SENSenegal | 1869 | I | CAF | 16.1% | 83.9% | 43.4% | 20.8% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| 19 | BELBelgium | 1850 | G | UEFA | 6% | 94% | 47% | 21.7% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| 20 | PARParaguay | 1833 | D | CONMEBOL | 21.6% | 78.4% | 37.9% | 16.8% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 21 | CANCanada | 1805 | B | CONCACAF | 10.6% | 89.4% | 40.9% | 17.1% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 22 | MARMorocco | 1806 | C | CAF | 13.3% | 86.7% | 39.7% | 16.6% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 23 | AUTAustria | 1818 | J | UEFA | 22.6% | 77.4% | 36.3% | 15.6% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 24 | KORKorea Republic | 1784 | A | AFC | 14.9% | 85.1% | 37.2% | 14.8% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 25 | AUSAustralia | 1774 | D | AFC | 34.2% | 65.8% | 28.2% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 26 | IRNIran | 1755 | G | AFC | 16.9% | 83.1% | 34% | 12.6% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 27 | CZECzechia | 1731 | A | UEFA | 25.2% | 74.8% | 29.1% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 28 | USAUnited States | 1747 | D | CONCACAF | 41.5% | 58.5% | 23.6% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 29 | ALGAlgeria | 1728 | J | CAF | 43.8% | 56.2% | 21.6% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 30 | UZBUzbekistan | 1728 | K | AFC | 38.7% | 61.3% | 23.6% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 31 | PANPanama | 1733 | L | CONCACAF | 42.1% | 57.9% | 22.6% | 8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 32 | SCOScotland | 1645 | C | UEFA | 51.4% | 48.6% | 15.3% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 33 | CIVCôte d'Ivoire | 1650 | E | CAF | 50.7% | 49.3% | 15.7% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 34 | SWESweden | 1660 | F | UEFA | 55.9% | 44.1% | 14.4% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 35 | EGYEgypt | 1659 | G | CAF | 39.6% | 60.4% | 19.6% | 5.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 36 | JORJordan | 1689 | J | AFC | 54.8% | 45.2% | 15.9% | 5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 37 | RSASouth Africa | 1500 | A | CAF | 84.4% | 15.6% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0% | 0% |
| 38 | BIHBosnia & Herzegovina | 1580 | B | UEFA | 64.6% | 35.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0% |
| 39 | QATQatar | 1550 | B | AFC | 72.1% | 27.9% | 6.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0% |
| 40 | HAIHaiti | 1550 | C | CONCACAF | 76% | 24% | 5.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0% |
| 41 | CUWCuraçao | 1500 | E | CONCACAF | 86.2% | 13.8% | 3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0% | 0% |
| 42 | TUNTunisia | 1630 | F | CAF | 64.3% | 35.7% | 10.8% | 3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0% |
| 43 | NZLNew Zealand | 1500 | G | OFC | 80.8% | 19.2% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0% | 0% |
| 44 | CPVCabo Verde | 1500 | H | CAF | 86.6% | 13.4% | 3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0% | 0% |
| 45 | KSASaudi Arabia | 1635 | H | AFC | 56.7% | 43.3% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0% |
| 46 | IRQIraq | 1600 | I | AFC | 83.1% | 16.9% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0% |
| 47 | CODCongo DR | 1550 | K | CAF | 84.4% | 15.6% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0% | 0% |
| 48 | GHAGhana | 1620 | L | CAF | 73.6% | 26.4% | 7.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0% |
The Market vs The Math
Where our million simulations disagree with the betting market.
Dominant
Spain at 20.7% — the clear favorite by pure math
No adjustments, no narratives. Spain's 2172 ELO is 59 points above Argentina and 110 above France. The math says they're the team to beat, and Group H gives them the easiest path to the knockouts (99.6% advancement).
The Gap
Argentina at 14.1% — strong but not a coin flip with Spain
The market often prices Spain and Argentina as near-equal. ELO says there's a meaningful gap. Argentina's 2113 is elite but Spain at 2172 has a 6.6% champion edge. That gap is where value lives.
Overpriced
USA has only a 0.2% chance to win it all
The hosting narrative can't override a 1747 ELO. The math gives the US a 41.5% chance of not even making it out of their group. Betting on a USA deep run is sentiment, not math.
Dark Horse
Ecuador at 3.1% — 9th most likely champion
With a 1933 ELO, Ecuador is stronger than Germany (1910) by pure form. They're in a winnable Group E and most bettors won't price them correctly. Worth a look at long odds.
🎮 The EA Sports Question
EA has predicted the last 4 World Cup winners.
So why do you need Trueline?
EA Sports uses a video game engine — player ratings, gameplay mechanics, and scripted moments. They're remarkably good at predicting WHO might win. But knowing who wins doesn't tell you how to bet.
Trueline doesn't compete with EA's prediction. We're the tool that tells you what to DO with it.
When EA's pick is OVERPRICED
EA picks a team → public money floods in → sportsbooks shorten the odds → Trueline's compound factor model shows the real probability is lower than what the market implies → low compound score. The market already overpriced the narrative.
When EA's pick is UNDERPRICED
EA picks a team → but the books haven't moved the line yet → Trueline's compound factors confirm the math supports the pick and the odds still offer value → high compound score. The market hasn't caught up.
EA tells you who they think wins. Trueline's compound factor analysis tells you whether the odds give you value. That's the difference between a prediction and structured intelligence.
Turn simulations into match-day edges
Get compound factor analysis on every match — 9 research-backed factors, thesis vs. antithesis, built by a credentialed I-O Psychologist.